{
  "protocolId": "tp-council-btc-1h-2026-10-11-v1",
  "publishedDate": "2026-10-11",
  "status": "published_specification_run_not_registered",
  "empiricalResultsIncluded": false,
  "illustrationIsModelEvidence": false,
  "scope": "Bitcoin hourly conditional up probability, not exact price or all-market forecasting",
  "requiresBeforeRun": [
    "start/end UTC",
    "fixed exchange/instrument/price source",
    "exact model/provider identifiers",
    "prompt and common input versions",
    "minimum baseline history",
    "data outage/correction policy",
    "calibration bins and uncertainty method",
    "public timestamped commitment channel"
  ],
  "run": {
    "startUTC": null,
    "endUTC": null,
    "marketVenue": null,
    "instrument": null,
    "priceSource": null,
    "promptVersion": null,
    "inputPacketVersion": null,
    "calibrationBins": null,
    "uncertaintyMethod": null
  },
  "seats": [
    {
      "id": "qwen",
      "exactModelId": null,
      "provider": null
    },
    {
      "id": "llama",
      "exactModelId": null,
      "provider": null
    },
    {
      "id": "gptoss",
      "exactModelId": null,
      "provider": null
    },
    {
      "id": "nemotron",
      "exactModelId": null,
      "provider": null
    },
    {
      "id": "mistral",
      "exactModelId": null,
      "provider": null
    }
  ],
  "task": {
    "target": "hourly candle close versus open",
    "sealDeadlineMinutesBeforeTarget": 5,
    "upThresholdReturn": 0.0001,
    "downThresholdReturn": -0.0001,
    "push": "strictly between thresholds; publish but exclude from binary score",
    "probabilityRequired": "P(up | non-push), explicit in run prompt"
  },
  "score": {
    "name": "binary Brier",
    "formula": "mean((p - y)^2)",
    "upOutcome": 1,
    "downOutcome": 0,
    "constant50Score": 0.25,
    "missingOrLateSeatScoredProbability": 0.5,
    "secondaryViews": [
      "on-time submitted forecasts",
      "common eligible hours"
    ],
    "comparisons": "same-hour paired score differences; time dependence and multiplicity disclosed"
  },
  "ensemble": {
    "method": "arithmetic mean of on-time available seats",
    "allMissingProbability": 0.5,
    "preserveMembership": true
  },
  "references": {
    "constant50": 0.5,
    "historical": {
      "windowMaximumClosedHours": 2160,
      "formula": "up / (up + down)",
      "excludePushes": true,
      "minimumHistory": null,
      "insufficientHistory": "no baseline score; preserve flag and compare on common valid hours"
    },
    "momentum": {
      "lookbackMinutes": 60,
      "bars": "completed five-minute bars available at seal",
      "positiveProbability": 0.52,
      "negativeProbability": 0.48,
      "flatProbability": 0.5,
      "missingInput": "no baseline score; preserve flag and compare on common valid hours"
    }
  },
  "integrity": "A hash chain supports integrity only with retained publicly or independently timestamped commitments. SIM is never empirical evidence.",
  "source": {
    "commit": "3df40c051624ed56daeff51163ced63f4f100193",
    "rulePath": "components/council/rules.ts",
    "hashEncoding": "UTF-8 with LF line endings, matching Git source blobs",
    "ruleSHA256": "04243bc8f176867306113b598f97ae0e6c1c611c35f1058fdecccad2cfdedde7",
    "interfaceWorkerSHA256": "9c5f707a81e6b686ae489a843b093e02bd5878d27676049faca6b4fbdc5f113c"
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}